A Forex View From Afar

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Non-Farm payroll and unemployment rate

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Friday, January 04, 2008

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Today, the NFP release, the most lagging indicator in my opinion me, showed that US economy is slowing.
There were only 18k jobs created by the US, even though the markets expected around 70k. If there are no major revisions, this will be the lowest release since 2003,.

The big losers were the factory jobs and the construction sector.
Yesterday, we saw that factory orders grew 1.5% (from a much lower expectation), and today we see a big number of lost jobs in factories, 31k. This could indicate that factories are trying to reduce expenses, even if they have orders. To me, this is a clear sign that expenses got to high, while incomes didn’t go any higher. Should we blame this on the weakening dollar, or on Commodity inflation?

At the same time as the NFP release, the unemployment numbers came in at 5.0%, showing an increase, again beating market expectations, just not positively beating them!
The unemployment rate for minorities grew at the fastest rate, showing again that industries are trying to ditch low paid workers in the search for profitability.

After all this, I am really looking for the Earnings Season to start. I’m really curios as to how many companies will end Q4, or all year, with losses.

Until now, the major stock Indices are on negative ground, while the Yen makes hay whilst the sun shines.

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There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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