A Forex View From Afar

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The Gainers and Losers of 2007

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Wednesday, January 02, 2008

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The Wall Street Journal made a quick statistic with winner and gainer for 2007. Amex had the best run, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 didn't beat any expectations (is it the subprime fault?)
Anyhow, Eur/Usd with 10% gain is somewhere in the middle, while Oil and Gold gained 39% and 21%.
How we laid out in our 2008 trade plan, we agree that Gold and Oil will likely go even further, but not on a big pace. They, as everything else, are under the supply and demand law, which tells that at as the price grows, fewer buyers will find. If we speak on YoY performance, both gold and oil will be affected by the current high price. Soybeans went up in 2007 by 59%, while wheat 119%

We now reach the worst performers of 2007 smashing with orange juice at a whapping
-29%, the Yen with -10%( I personally don't find any surprise here) and the Venezuelan currency, which lost 29%.
About the Yen now, we think that the it will outperform this year, while US is near a recession and the stock market doesn't receive any good news soon.
You know what they say...there are plenty of motives to sell, but they just need one good reason to buy.

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Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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