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Forex Analysis

US Trade Balance

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Tuesday, March 11, 2008

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Nothing spectacular came from the Trade Balance, it slowly widened, although it did beat analyst expectations. Exports have increased at almost the same pace as imports did, so where is the low dollar helping out the exports side of the story hiding? The housing market has a 20 to 30% influence on the Trade Balance, compared with 7% of the exchange rate.
So, yes we may see a better Trade Balance, but not all from the low Dollar, but from the free-falling housing market.

US Trade Balance

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Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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