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Can we please go shopping?

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Thursday, March 13, 2008

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Retail Sales numbers came in at -0.6%, while the Core number came -0.2% month over month.
They maybe look back, showing a consumer reluctant to spend, but they are not so bad. It certainly sparks some recessionary thoughts, but the numbers don't really show recession.

My big reasons why I don't see this numbers as being so bad is because we are in a downtrend in retail sales since '05 (do I see a double top there?), and we are still up versus last years numbers. We are now 8.8% total sales (excl. motor vehicle & parts), 4.6% adjusted to inflation, and retail sales are up 6.5% from last year, 2.3% inflation adjusted.
Those number don't show any recession for me, they would be seen as weak for a healthy economy, but are dragged down now by the other markets.

Retail Sales

If we want to see something dramatic, we just need to look at the housing or financial markets.

Ps. do you know which Business had the biggest gain, year over year? Gasoline stations, with a whooping 25% growth.

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