A Forex View From Afar

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Don't worry, be happy

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Friday, February 15, 2008

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O.K. consumers, you've had your rate cuts and the road to 1% doesn't seem to be a long one, the government will send you your check by the spring to fund your big Summer barbecue (South American meat, oriental spices, Import Beer) or to sponsor your new plasma T.V. (should I say Japan). So what reasons do you have to be pessimistic about the future? How often do you receive money from the government without asking?

Consumer Sentiment just came in at 69.6, the lowest reading in 16 years. The sub-prime has been screaming for 6 months and only now we can see the masses being affected by it, a big note to self, this indicator is very lagging. Even if the sub-prime and housing problems will be resolved tomorrow, we'll need another 6 months for the media to inform consumers. This somehow shows me, until checks will physically reach consumers, things will be red, and even when they reach their destination...miracles don't last long

Markets are seeing a 50 point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting and I'm starting to get used to waking up in the morning and seeing positive swap from my long Euro trades. It’s not so bad after all.

PS. Did you see the TIC numbers? Probably the next sub-prime is the US Debt

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Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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