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Another wave of bad numbers

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Thursday, February 21, 2008

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Another day, another wave of bad figures has hit the markets around the world, from Forex to Equities, passing through Bonds.

The first hot news of the day was that another fund had been rescued from bankruptcy resulting from sub-prime. The third largest bank in Germany, Dresdner, will provide a credit line to save its $18.8bn fund, which had been reduce by $31.2bn since July.
How big did the losses generated by sub-prime get? They are so widespread that I've lost the count.

Economist Intelligence Unit had cut today the GDP prognoses for 2008, as for 2009. This year's estimate is 0.8% growth, down from 1.5%, which was released in January (not so long ago). Next year GDP prognosis is down to 1.4% from 2.0%. This looks like two years of slow growth. The analysts were expecting a 3% growth from Q3 2008.

The Philly Fed Index came -24, versus analyst estimations of -10. It's not a surprise that is the lowest reading since '01 recession, but it is a surprise that the respondent's six-month forecast is at the lowest level since the last decade.

Fed Philly index Forex Chart

Manufacturers, both in the ISM and Philly index had accused higher input prices, and as I write Gold makes another top at $951, while Oil is trading around $99.

WSJ: Secondary Sources: 2009 May Not Be Better Than 2008
Bloomberg: Dresdner Rescues $19 Billion SIV, Follows Citigroup

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