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Commodities Thoughts

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Tuesday, February 19, 2008

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As we are told, we are very close to a recession in the US, and usually, during these periods the demand side of the economy slows, as demand drops. With all this commodities this time around are not getting affected by this; Gold and Oil are almost at historical highs, $926 and $97 while other commodities are already at the top. Maybe commodity Traders don’t read financial news, they are seeing the bright side of things, or the Global economy is way ahead of the US and continuing the expansion-lead rally in Commodity prices..

Oil has traded above $90 barrel since November, while gold is holding above $900, and has done for a month now. As soon as the recession fears are forgotten, it is very likely Commodities will get more expensive. Better keep an eye on them, as well as on the Cad and Aussie, both currencies could be getting ready for a period of Trending Trade.

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Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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