Still no green from equities
Written by A Forex View From Afar on Thursday, January 31, 2008Still no green from equities
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I was talking some time ago about equity markets not wanting to show any sign of green even after 175 points cut and the President speaking about the resuscitation plan. You can read it here
Now, we are 6 days later, 225 points cut, from which 125 point in 8 days, and the famous plan has reached congress with real chances of being adopted and guess what: equities still don't want to grow.
We could say that equities don't show any green is a surprise, but really...it isn't such a big one.
The Fed rate cut was too late, much too late. After cutting 2 times 25points from October to December now they cut 125 in a week. That's a jump.
Wall Street guys were crying for such big cuts some time ago and now they have it. But now they are crying after the insurance companies to be saved. If we go on with thid, the insurance companies will be saved when Wall Street guys will cry for something else. This is what behind the curb (or simpler lagging) is all about.
About the insurance companies now, some rating agencies are starting to cut their ratings, from triple AAA (only goodness know how they got it) to AA and probably much lower, in the face of bankruptcy.
Once the insurance companies are downgraded, so are the bonds that were insuraned by those companies. Banks, mutual funds, pensions fund can't keep those bonds on the book, so they have to take those bonds off, and faces more huge losses.
This line should provide an interesting view from the inside:
"Industry experts say banks so far have been writing down their CDO holdings under the assumption that the insurers won't face sharp ratings downgrades"
Translation: We'll probably see more losses coming. By that time, who really knows what the sub-prime had destroyed in other parts of the economy? Oh, I forget, it has already draged down the entire economy...
Source:
WSJ: More Subprime Pain in Store
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