A Forex View From Afar

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Forex Analysis

State Owned RBS and HBOS

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Tuesday, October 14, 2008

The U.K. Government has decided to inject up to 37 billion pounds ($64 billion) in a bailout for the country's biggest banks. Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS and Lloyds TSB are the banks that will receive the cash injection, split into 20 billion pounds for RBS and 17 billion pounds for HBOS and Lloyds.

Therefore, the major shareholder of HBOS and RBS will become the U.K. Government, which will hold a 58% stake in HBOS and 60% in RBS. Furthermore, both banks will have Government controlled seats in the board. The actions taken lately clearly show that central banks are ready to step into the market and save the financial system. The markets are rallying today, aided by the actions taken by the central banks.

However, as in the last few days this has not been reflected in the currency market, yet. The yen, which indicates the market’s risk-awareness, is trading below the Asian session open price, while the European pairs are trading virtually flat since the Asian session opened, even though the trading range was quite large. All eyes are now on the Libor rates, to see if the money markets tensions come down to some degree.

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Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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