A Forex View From Afar

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Forex Analysis

Global Equities

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Monday, August 25, 2008

After Asian equities posted this morning the biggest gain in the recent weeks, European and US stocks declined on concerns about the financial markets.

Equity markets have developed a pattern of trading lately: every rally is short-lived because either inflation related-fears appear or rumors show up that banks may be constrained to have another round of write-downs based on the latest trends of credit rating agencies cutting the debt rating of various financial institutions on a daily basis.

The S&P is now testing the 1260.00 support area, which proved to be very important in the past. This area corresponds to the low points on 24th of January and the low made in March, when Bear Stearns was bailed out by the Fed. If the index will break under the 1260 level, it is very likely a wave of short orders will join the market.

Overall, this paints the picture of a market scared of its own shadow, in which traders have large sentimental swings. This creates a lot of volatility, something that can be seen on every chart, but in the same time despised by every trade desk or retail trader. The truth is that the financial institutions may have some hard times ahead, and the market, as the economy, will have a very hard time pushing things around without them.

stock market S&P 500

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Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

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