A Forex View From Afar

A Trader's Look At A Trader's Life

Forex Analysis

Retail Sales counted twice actually

Written by A Forex View From Afar on Friday, February 15, 2008

Back to www.thelfb.com

Equities rose today on better then expected Retail Sales numbers. Markets had expected a -0.2% decline on month to month basis, while the released numbers came in at 0.3%.
Lately, almost every major news release has something pessimistic to say. This report was a breath of air that equities and markets around the world really needed. With all this, I have to say markets have been tricked again this time.

Two things I’ll like to point out, firstly Retail Sales are not adjusted to inflation. It’s very likely inflation will be bigger or at least equal to 0.3% (how it was on the last 4 releases).
This will bring down Retail Sales to 0.0% growth or very close to it, which means Retail Sales didn’t do so well.

The best part comes now and we’ll start with a puzzle…What are the similarities between NFP and Retail Sales?

They are both calculated based on previous data. Remember the infamous death/bird model? Retail Sales are very close too.
The Numbers released today are mostly based on 2006 retail sales and those numbers were very good. From January 2005 to January 2006 there was a 10% growth in Retail Sales, while the average for this period is about 5%.

I’m starting to feel that the retail sales are just a fake hope, but don’t worry, tomorrow could be much worse

Please add your Comments

Related Posts by Categories



  1. 0 comments: Responses to “ Retail Sales counted twice actually ”

TheLFB Team & The View From Afar Blog

© 2008 A Forex View From a far Trading Blog

Trade Desk View

Fundies and Trading
There is a constant question from some traders as to why anybody would ever need to consider the ‘F’ word when trading. Fundamentals: what is so damaging at looking at both Technical charts and having a Fundamental filter to gauge how many Lots to put on? Why is it that accepting that Technicals give us price points to trade, but Fundamentals determine the direction that we travel is so difficult for some traders to accept? Without a Fundamental Filter very few pure Technical traders would have seen this Dollar move coming today.

Want to subscribe?


Subscribe in a reader.